Trump, Dorian, Alabama, and a Sharpie

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s erroneous tweet that Hurricane Dorian was headed for Alabama, his refusal to admit he had made an error, and the attempts of some government employees to redirect reality in order to back him up, will the state of the weather, like climate change or evolution, become a partisan issue?

On Sunday, Sept. 1, Trump tweeted, “In addition to Florida—South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.” 

To try to prevent Alabamans from panicking (a hurricane is, after all, a natural disaster), the Birmingham National Weather Service (NWS Birmingham) immediately corrected Trump’s statement, tweeting, “Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian… We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east.”

Apparently, however, it was more important to protect Emperor Trump’s pride by maintaining that he was wearing beautiful new clothes than it was to correct his mistake, even if it threw millions of people into panic: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) directed NWS not to contradict Trump’s tweet, and allegedly threatened firings if they did.

“This is the first time I’ve felt pressure from above to not say what truly is the forecast,” an anonymous NWS Birmingham meteorologist said. “…One of the things we train on is to dispel inaccurate rumors and ultimately that is what was occurring — ultimately what the Alabama office did is provide a forecast with their tweet, that is what they get paid to do.”

Most people would have forgotten about Trump’s erroneous tweet if his obsession with defending it as the truth hadn’t continued through the week to incredible extremes. On Wednesday, after several tweets asserting that he had been right about the forecast for Alabama, Trump held up what looked like a NWS map from the preceding Thursday. On the map, Dorian’s projected path was extended with a black Sharpie to include Alabama.

“We got lucky in Florida — very, very lucky indeed. We had actually, our original chart was that it was going to be hitting Florida directly,” Trump said during a briefing on Hurricane Dorian. “…That was the original chart, you see it was going to hit not only Florida but Georgia … and was going toward the Gulf, that’s what was originally projected. And it took a right turn. And ultimately, hopefully, we’re going to be lucky.”

Meteorologists immediately responded, confirming that the “official” weather map Trump was holding had been doctored by someone holding a Sharpie. 

Meteorologist Ryan Breton tweeted “Can’t let this go unnoticed. @realDonaldTrump displayed a doctored version of the @NHC_Atlantic forecast for #Dorian. 

The black extension past Florida did not exist; that’s not how forecast cones are drawn.” 

The U.S. Commerce Department’s Office of the Inspector General, Peggy Gustafson, is now examining the statement NOAA made on Friday. NOAA employees have been asked to retain their files. 

The National Weather Service “must maintain standards of scientific integrity,” said Gustafson. “(The circumstances) call into question the NWS’s processes, scientific independence, and ability to communicate accurate and timely weather warnings and data to the nation in times of national emergency.”

Donald Trump continues his assertion that he was right about Hurricane Dorian’s predicted threat to the state of Alabama. In reality, however, it was Trump who was a threat to Alabama.

NOAA Backs Trump on Alabama Hurricane Threat | The White House
[2019-09-04]

Donald and the Magic Sharpie | Jimmy Kimmel Live  [2019-09-07]

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Trump Trailing Top Democrats

The August national Quinnipiac University poll finds Donald Trump significantly behind his top five Democratic challengers. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by the largest margin, 16 points. That is, 54 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Biden if the 2020 election were held today, while just 38 percent say they would vote for Trump. Every poll in this portion of the campaign cycle has found Joe Biden to be in the lead over Donald Trump.

Other top Democrats who are leading Trump are Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (53 percent said they would vote for Sanders, compared to 39 percent who said they would vote for Trump); Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (52 – 40 percent); California Sen. Kamala Harris (51 – 40 percent); and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (49 – 40 percent).

According to Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow, “In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40. It’s the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected.” 

At this point in past presidential campaigns, no incumbent U.S. president has ever polled as poorly against his potential challengers as Donald Trump. Historically, most incumbents were ahead by this time in the campaign, and most led their challengers by an average of 12 points. 

Says CNN’s Harry Enten, “…Trump’s worst poll against any of the top five Democrats at this point is 5 points worse than the worst poll for any incumbent since World War II against his eventual challenger. It’s 12 points worse against his most likely challenger, Biden.”

Trump’s approval rating has also been consistently lower than his disapproval rating. According to the Quinnipiac poll, 56 percent of voters said that they disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president; only 38 percent of those polled said they approved. 

“That lines up with what occurred in the 2018 midterms,” says CNN’s Enten. “Republican House candidates got the same share of the votes as Trump’s approval rating, 45 percent.”

Though it’s still early, the Quinnipiac poll, along with other polls, clearly shows us that if the 2020 presidential election were held today, most Americans would vote for a Democrat over Donald Trump.

Fox Poll: Trump Trails All of The Leading Democrats | Richard French Live [2019-08-20]

New poll shows several Democrats could beat Trump | CBS News
[2019-08-28]