Donald Trump’s Impact on 2018 Votes

No matter how voters plan to cast their ballots in the 2018 election, the majority of voters polled say that their vote is, to some degree, a referendum on Donald Trump. In a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, about two-thirds of voters said that Trump would be an influence in how they will vote this year.

Most voters who responded said they will vote Democrat. In fact, Democrats now have 10-point lead over Republicans when it comes to the question of how people are responding to Trump with their votes. Women (especially suburban women and white women with college degrees), non-white voters, and Independent voters, are driving the disparity.

It appears that the 2018 election will be driven largely by women. Fifty-one percent of women overall, and 54 percent of suburban women say their impressions of Trump will impact how they vote. Of those women who responded to the poll, 64 percent said that they were more likely to vote Democratic. Thirty-two percent said they planned to vote Republican.

Of those who say that Donald Trump has influenced their motivation to vote Republican, as expected, the group looks similar to Trump’s base: white evangelical Christians, white people (especially men) without college degrees, married men, and rural voters.

Health care and climate change are the top voting issues for those voting Democrat. Jobs, the economy, and immigration were the top issues for those who plan to vote Republican.

As it turns out, the GOP tax cuts may not have helped the Republicans in the 2018 elections. Forty -five percent say that the tax cuts have made them more likely to vote for a Democrat in a 2018 Congressional election. Only thirty-nine percent of those polled are more likely to vote Republican as a result of the tax cuts.

Though Donald Trump has said he would deny any responsibility if the Democrats take the House in 2018, he has, on the other hand, frequently told his base on the campaign trail that a vote for a Republican is a vote for him.

“I’m not on the ballot,” Trump told a crowd in Southhaven, Miss. “But in a certain way, I’m on the ballot. So, please go out and vote.”

So, as Trump and his supporters see it, voting for a Republican in any race is a vote for Donald Trump. On the other hand, for them, voting for a Democrat doesn’t equate to voting against Donald Trump.

At the end of Election Day 2018, Donald Trump and his supporters will note a clear winner if they keep the House. But if the Democrats take the House, it seems likely that they will consider trying to bury the idea of Donald Trump’s impact on the elections.

Trump viewed as important factor in Americans’ vote: poll | Fox Business [2018-11-01]

Donald Trump On Midterms: A Vote For [Insert Name Here] Is A Vote For Me | The 11th Hour | MSNBC [2018-1015]

Stephen Miller is Coming for Legal Immigrants Now

Stephen Miller and Donald Trump want Americans to associate all immigrants – even legal immigrants – with crime, with “taking our jobs,” and with “taking advantage of the system,” i.e., depending on public assistance (“welfare”). And to ensure that all bases are covered regarding the definition of public assistance (and thus, the idea that immigrants are taking advantage of the system), White House immigration czar Miller has proposed a policy that would broaden the scope of what counts as public assistance. Then, Stephen Miller’s policy would make it harder for legal immigrants who have received any public benefits to obtain U.S. citizenship.

It has already been a longstanding U.S. policy to deny citizenship to applicants who are expected to be dependent solely on welfare, but Stephen Miller’s policy, with its much wider definition of “government assistance” – makes it much easier and more convenient to deny citizenship, even to legal immigrants, based on welfare “dependency.”

Though legal immigrants wouldn’t be denied benefits, their use of any that are on Stephen Miller’s list would count against them. In this case, “government assistance” stretches to include not only Medicaid and food stamps, but also programs such as ACA (Obamacare) health care subsidies and the Earned Income Tax Credit.

Under the guise of concern for American taxpayer dollars, Stephen Miller and the Trump administration claim that immigrants are a drain on the system. The reality, however, is that immigrants, according to a study by the Cato Institute, “are less likely to consume welfare benefits and, when they do, they generally consume a lower dollar value of benefits than native-born Americans.”

Another reality is that most Americans, not just immigrants, have benefited in some way from what Stephen Miller now wants to define as “welfare.” One example is the Earned Income Tax Credit. Another example is the tax-deductible aspect of our health insurance, even if we get it from our employer (the government is actually paying part of the premium by making it tax-deductible).

So, even if a legal immigrant is legitimately working and paying taxes, if he or she has taken a tax deduction on even employee-provided health insurance, or claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit, Stephen Miller and his proposed policy may be coming for them.

Frank Sharry, Executive director of America’s Voice, a pro-immigrant group, says, “Trump and Miller have concluded that the best 2018 political strategy is a divisive and desperate three-step: 1) do something cruel to immigrants; 2) sit back as Democrats, the fact-based media and the majority of Americans denounce the cruelty; 3) step in and claim that the President is standing up for his white base and against ‘the other’ while working to define Democrats as doing the opposite,” Sharry said. “They did this on DACA. They did this on family separation. Now they are planning to do the same on public charge.”

The Trump administration continues to think of innovative ways to purge the U.S. of immigrants. Stephen Miller and his ilk show little interest in what is ethical or lawful regarding the issue, and now it seems that since they can’t use existing laws to deport all groups of immigrants, they’re willing to make something up so that even legal immigrants will fail at becoming full Americans.

Trump Administration Continues Its War On Immigrants | All In | MSNBC [2018-08-07]

Trump plans to make the Citizenship application for legal immigrants harder | Attorney Shah Peerally [2018-08-07]