Texas v. Azar: The End of the Affordable Care Act?

The attempts by Trump and his ilk to dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or “Obamacare”) continue, even as they are overshadowed by Congress’ impeachment inquiry. The next imminent threat to the Affordable Care Act may occur at some point in October, as judges in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals rule on the Texas v. Azar lawsuit, argued in July.

Destroying the ACA was a hallmark and battle cry of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign. On the day of Trump’s swearing in, he immediately signed an executive order “to waive, defer, grant exemptions from, or delay” portions of the Affordable Care Act. 

On December 15, 2018, a Texas federal district court judge found that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which nullified the tax penalties associated with the individual mandate portion of the ACA, rendered the individual mandate unconstitutional. Consequently, since the individual mandate is an “essential” part of the ACA, the entire ACA was unconstitutional, the judge ruled.

The state of Texas, along with the other plaintiffs, argued that with the tax penalty removed, the zero dollar fine now outlined in the ACA is a “naked, penalty-free command to buy insurance,” explains Nicholas Bagley, professor of law at the University of Michigan.

“…Congress doesn’t have the power to adopt a freestanding mandate,” he says. “It just has the power to impose a tax.”

Therefore, plaintiffs argued, “The naked mandate that remains in the Affordable Care Act must be unconstitutional.”

The fact that only two of the three judges in the case (both Republican-appointed) asked any questions when hearing the case in July is thought to bode poorly for the future of the Affordable Care Act. 

“I think we should be prepared for the worst — the invalidation of all or a significant part of the Affordable Care Act,” says Bagley.

If this is true, it doesn’t mean that the ACA will be immediately invalid. It is still the law. 

However, says Sabrina Corlette, director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University, “If that decision comes out before or during open enrollment (November 1 through December 15), it could lead to a lot of consumer confusion about the security of their coverage and may actually discourage people from enrolling, which I think would be a bad thing.”

The case will almost certainly go to the Supreme Court if the 5th Circuit Court declares the Affordable Care Act invalid, however. 

Here are some  other ways the Trump administration has hacked away at the Affordable Care Act:

  • Ending cost-sharing reduction subsidies to insurersThese federal payments to insurers were meant to motivate insurers to participate in the ACA insurance exchanges, and help keep premiums down. The Trump administration abruptly stopped paying these in 2017. 
  • Allowing states to add “work requirements” to Medicaid. The ACA expanded Medicaid so that more individuals and families were eligible. Under Trump’s new rules, states may choose to require potential Medicaid beneficiaries to provide documentation that they either go to school or work, in order to receive benefits.
  • Expanding access to short-term “skinny plans.” Under the ACA, these low-cost, low-coverage plans were meant only as a “bridge” for those between jobs or in school. These plans don’t tend to cover ACA-mandated items such as pre-existing conditions or “essential health benefits.” What’s more, their extremely high deductibles could place their holders in financial difficulty should they become seriously ill.
  • Reducing funds to facilitate signup for healthcare.gov insurance plans. Under the ACA, Navigator programs and a marketing budget were created to help people figure out how to sign up for health insurance on the exchanges. Trump’s reductions in funding for these services is a passive way to make it more difficult for disadvantaged people to sign up for ACA plans.

Experts have warned that dismantling the Affordable Care Act will cause great damage throughout the U.S. health care system. It is the Affordable Care Act, for example, that protects people with pre-existing conditions from being uninsurable, and mandates that “essential health benefits” such as a basic check-up, maternity care, and prescription drugs, are covered. 

“The Affordable Care Act is now part of the plumbing of our nation’s health care system,” says Bagley. “Ripping it out would cause untold damage and would create a whole lot of uncertainty.”

Could Texas v. Azar End the ACA? — Christopher Holt | American Action Forum (AAF) [2019-05-20]

Chairman Scott: Texas v. Azar Decision is “Frivolous” | House Committee on Education and Labor [2019-01-09]

Trump, Dorian, Alabama, and a Sharpie

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s erroneous tweet that Hurricane Dorian was headed for Alabama, his refusal to admit he had made an error, and the attempts of some government employees to redirect reality in order to back him up, will the state of the weather, like climate change or evolution, become a partisan issue?

On Sunday, Sept. 1, Trump tweeted, “In addition to Florida—South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.” 

To try to prevent Alabamans from panicking (a hurricane is, after all, a natural disaster), the Birmingham National Weather Service (NWS Birmingham) immediately corrected Trump’s statement, tweeting, “Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian… We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east.”

Apparently, however, it was more important to protect Emperor Trump’s pride by maintaining that he was wearing beautiful new clothes than it was to correct his mistake, even if it threw millions of people into panic: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) directed NWS not to contradict Trump’s tweet, and allegedly threatened firings if they did.

“This is the first time I’ve felt pressure from above to not say what truly is the forecast,” an anonymous NWS Birmingham meteorologist said. “…One of the things we train on is to dispel inaccurate rumors and ultimately that is what was occurring — ultimately what the Alabama office did is provide a forecast with their tweet, that is what they get paid to do.”

Most people would have forgotten about Trump’s erroneous tweet if his obsession with defending it as the truth hadn’t continued through the week to incredible extremes. On Wednesday, after several tweets asserting that he had been right about the forecast for Alabama, Trump held up what looked like a NWS map from the preceding Thursday. On the map, Dorian’s projected path was extended with a black Sharpie to include Alabama.

“We got lucky in Florida — very, very lucky indeed. We had actually, our original chart was that it was going to be hitting Florida directly,” Trump said during a briefing on Hurricane Dorian. “…That was the original chart, you see it was going to hit not only Florida but Georgia … and was going toward the Gulf, that’s what was originally projected. And it took a right turn. And ultimately, hopefully, we’re going to be lucky.”

Meteorologists immediately responded, confirming that the “official” weather map Trump was holding had been doctored by someone holding a Sharpie. 

Meteorologist Ryan Breton tweeted “Can’t let this go unnoticed. @realDonaldTrump displayed a doctored version of the @NHC_Atlantic forecast for #Dorian. 

The black extension past Florida did not exist; that’s not how forecast cones are drawn.” 

The U.S. Commerce Department’s Office of the Inspector General, Peggy Gustafson, is now examining the statement NOAA made on Friday. NOAA employees have been asked to retain their files. 

The National Weather Service “must maintain standards of scientific integrity,” said Gustafson. “(The circumstances) call into question the NWS’s processes, scientific independence, and ability to communicate accurate and timely weather warnings and data to the nation in times of national emergency.”

Donald Trump continues his assertion that he was right about Hurricane Dorian’s predicted threat to the state of Alabama. In reality, however, it was Trump who was a threat to Alabama.

NOAA Backs Trump on Alabama Hurricane Threat | The White House
[2019-09-04]

Donald and the Magic Sharpie | Jimmy Kimmel Live  [2019-09-07]