2018 Election – * Failed Pols

No matter how voters plan to cast their ballots in the 2018 election, the majority of voters polled say that their vote is, to some degree, a referendum on Donald Trump. In a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, about two-thirds of voters said that Trump would be an influence in how they will vote this year.

Most voters who responded said they will vote Democrat. In fact, Democrats now have 10-point lead over Republicans when it comes to the question of how people are responding to Trump with their votes. Women (especially suburban women and white women with college degrees), non-white voters, and Independent voters, are driving the disparity.

It appears that the 2018 election will be driven largely by women. Fifty-one percent of women overall, and 54 percent of suburban women say their impressions of Trump will impact how they vote. Of those women who responded to the poll, 64 percent said that they were more likely to vote Democratic. Thirty-two percent said they planned to vote Republican.

Of those who say that Donald Trump has influenced their motivation to vote Republican, as expected, the group looks similar to Trump’s base: white evangelical Christians, white people (especially men) without college degrees, married men, and rural voters.

Health care and climate change are the top voting issues for those voting Democrat. Jobs, the economy, and immigration were the top issues for those who plan to vote Republican.

As it turns out, the GOP tax cuts may not have helped the Republicans in the 2018 elections. Forty -five percent say that the tax cuts have made them more likely to vote for a Democrat in a 2018 Congressional election. Only thirty-nine percent of those polled are more likely to vote Republican as a result of the tax cuts.

Though Donald Trump has said he would deny any responsibility if the Democrats take the House in 2018, he has, on the other hand, frequently told his base on the campaign trail that a vote for a Republican is a vote for him.

“I’m not on the ballot,” Trump told a crowd in Southhaven, Miss. “But in a certain way, I’m on the ballot. So, please go out and vote.”

So, as Trump and his supporters see it, voting for a Republican in any race is a vote for Donald Trump. On the other hand, for them, voting for a Democrat doesn’t equate to voting against Donald Trump.

At the end of Election Day 2018, Donald Trump and his supporters will note a clear winner if they keep the House. But if the Democrats take the House, it seems likely that they will consider trying to bury the idea of Donald Trump’s impact on the elections.

Trump viewed as important factor in Americans’ vote: poll | Fox Business [2018-11-01]

Donald Trump On Midterms: A Vote For [Insert Name Here] Is A Vote For Me | The 11th Hour | MSNBC [2018-1015]

The news stories of 2017 kept Americans on the edges of their seats, with constant twists, turns, and unexpected developments on the U.S. and world political fronts. One consequence is that Americans are heading into 2018 more politically polarized than ever. The two major American political parties are not only philosophically more distant from each other, but each of the parties is more deeply divided within itself.

Many started 2017 with a wait-and-see, win-some, lose-some attitude. Others felt particularly buoyed by the political wins, while still others saw them as a direct threat to freedoms, and possibly to the U.S. position in the world. As we head into 2018, though, we can all agree that our nation has never seen the likes of the roller coaster ride that was the 2017 political scene.

The Five Reflect on 2017 | Fox News [2017-12-31]

Morning Joe Looks to the Year Ahead | Morning Joe MSNBC [2018-01-01]

Should Democrats Be Optimistic about the 2018 Mid-term Elections?

In November of 2018, a total of 468 U.S. Congress seats (33 in the Senate and all 435 seats in the House) will be up for election. Thirty-four U.S. State Governor’s offices will be up for re-election in 2018, as well. This presents a huge opportunity for Democrats to regain ground and take the country in a new direction. Will 2018 see a “blue wave” in the political landscape?

Democrats, not unlike the GOP, are experiencing a divide within their party, though, and this could hurt them in 2018. Unity over what the party currently stands for may be the Democrats’ biggest hurdle in the 2018 elections.

Some see the passage of the GOP Tax Bill as a desperate act, and an indicator that Republicans are losing ground. Democrats, who loudly and unilaterally opposed the bill, could pick up support as a result. Others see the Tax Bill as a demonstration of GOP strength, and remain faithful that middle-class American voters will experience some of the promised tax relief, with renewed support for the Republican party.

Historically, midterm elections have rarely been good news for a sitting president and his party. Current polls indicate that 56 percent of American voters would be more likely to vote for a Democrat in the 2018 mid-term elections, and just 38 percent would rather vote for a Republican.

On the other hand, though President Trump’s approval rating hovers at around 35 percent, the economy is doing well, and the jobs outlook is good. In November, 2018, will Americans vote on the issues that are important to them, or will their vote be a statement for (or against) the President? Will it be more about loss of trust in the current administration, or more about renewed hope for what is possible for the future?

What does the political landscape look like in 2018? | Face the Nation [2017-12-24]

Will Republicans Lose the House? | Fox Business [2017-12-26]

Tag: 2018 Election

Donald Trump’s Impact on 2018 Votes

What’s the Top Story of 2017?; Should Democrats Be Optimistic About the 2018 Mid-Term Elections?