The August national Quinnipiac University poll finds Donald Trump significantly behind his top five Democratic challengers. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by the largest margin, 16 points. That is, 54 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Biden if the 2020 election were held today, while just 38 percent say they would vote for Trump. Every poll in this portion of the campaign cycle has found Joe Biden to be in the lead over Donald Trump.
Other top Democrats who are leading Trump are Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (53 percent said they would vote for Sanders, compared to 39 percent who said they would vote for Trump); Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (52 – 40 percent); California Sen. Kamala Harris (51 – 40 percent); and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (49 – 40 percent).
According to Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow, “In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40. It’s the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected.”
At this point in past presidential campaigns, no incumbent U.S. president has ever polled as poorly against his potential challengers as Donald Trump. Historically, most incumbents were ahead by this time in the campaign, and most led their challengers by an average of 12 points.
Says CNN’s Harry Enten, “…Trump’s worst poll against any of the top five Democrats at this point is 5 points worse than the worst poll for any incumbent since World War II against his eventual challenger. It’s 12 points worse against his most likely challenger, Biden.”
Trump’s approval rating has also been consistently lower than his disapproval rating. According to the Quinnipiac poll, 56 percent of voters said that they disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president; only 38 percent of those polled said they approved.
“That lines up with what occurred in the 2018 midterms,” says CNN’s Enten. “Republican House candidates got the same share of the votes as Trump’s approval rating, 45 percent.”
Though it’s still early, the Quinnipiac poll, along with other polls, clearly shows us that if the 2020 presidential election were held today, most Americans would vote for a Democrat over Donald Trump.
Fox Poll: Trump Trails All of The Leading Democrats | Richard French Live [2019-08-20]
New poll shows several Democrats could beat Trump | CBS News
[2019-08-28]
